If the world were divided into net fossil fuel importers and exporters, three-quarters of us would live in the former.
That’s according to new analysis from think tank Ember, which emphasises the energy security that comes from investing in renewables instead.
Ministers and energy sector leaders are gathering in London for the International Energy Agency (IEA)’s Summit on the Future of Energy Security. Taking place from 24-25 April, it is a global effort to tackle multiple energy challenges.
“Fossil fuels are like renting a home, renewables are like owning one,” explains Dave Jones, Ember’s global insights programme director.
“The difference is simple: with fossil fuels you keep paying, prices are out of your control and the landlord can end the contract when they like. Renewables are an upfront investment, but provide long-term stability and independence.”
The new analysis shows that wind and solar are ready to support more countries becoming ‘homeowners’, from an energy point of view.
Which countries are the most and least reliant on fossil fuel imports?
Around 74 per cent of the world’s population lives in countries that depend on fossil fuel imports from other countries, according to Ember’s estimates, based on IEA data from 2022.
This is slightly less than previous research from 2018, when 80 per cent of people were reported to live in countries that were net fossil fuel importers. The shift is largely due to the US becoming a net exporter in 2019, having been a long-term net importer.
In total, just 12 countries supply 80 per cent of net fossil fuel exports, Ember found.
Many countries rely on fossil fuel imports for the vast majority of their overall energy needs, including Japan (87 per cent), Korea (81 per cent), Türkiye (69 per cent) and Germany (67 per cent). Spain and Italy also stick out as big importers in the analysis.
At the other end of the spectrum, China has kept its import reliance relatively low at 21 per cent of its energy needs, by using domestic coal and clean electricity, while electrifying its economy.
Solar panels pay for themselves in just a year
“While clean energy infrastructure may require initial investment, it frees nations from volatile fuel imports and recurring costs, unlike fossil fuels, which are a permanent economic drain that keeps you dependent on an external force,” adds Jones.
Ember’s analysis finds that the import cost of a solar panel ‘pays back’ in just one year, compared to the import cost of burning gas in a power plant.
Importing one gigawatt of solar panels costs $100 million (€87m), based on 2024 average prices. That’s equivalent to importing enough gas to generate the same amount of electricity in one year.
But importing fossil fuels is a recurring expense for countries. So solar panels quickly pay for themselves. Over a 30-year lifespan of solar panels, the savings are equivalent to 30 years of gas import costs at 2024 prices.
The world’s clean power transition is speeding up, with 40 per cent of electricity generated from low-carbon sources last year, according to Ember analysis from earlier this month.
Solar and wind could already generate enough electricity to replace the global gasoline demand from motor vehicles, the analysts add today, if the global gasoline vehicle fleet were all electric.
How will renewables factor into Europe’s energy security plans?
At this week’s summit – co-hosted by UK Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero Ed Miliband, and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol – the IEA is set to release a new framework on energy security, identifying key risks and opportunities, and a set of recommended actions.
The IEA has played a significant role in shaping the EU’s decarbonisation policy before, including the development of the European Green Deal and the RePower EU Plan.
Since the EU Commission launched the REPowerEU plan in May 2022, LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia have decreased from 45 per cent in 2021 to 19 per cent in 2024. Renewables have replaced gas, and helped protect European countries from external price shocks.
“European leaders know that gas does not guarantee energy security – we fell for that trap before 2022,” says Julian Popov, former Minister of the Environment of Bulgaria and senior fellow at Strategic Perspectives think tank. “The pain of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it clear that we will not fall for it again.”
The EU is aiming to achieve full energy independence from Russia by 2027.
Birol and Miliband are sure to emphasise, as they have many times before, that a successful energy transition and energy security go hand in hand.
