A trio of Game 3 matchups in the 2025 NBA Playoffs comprise Thursday’s NBA schedule, which begins with Knicks vs. Pistons (+1.5) at 7 p.m. ET. Thunder vs. Grizzlies (+10) will take place at 9:30 p.m. ET, while Clippers vs. Nuggets (+5) is the nightcap at 10 p.m. ET. Anyone betting NBA player props will focus on stars like Cade Cunningham, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Jalen Brunson, with their points totals garnering considerable attention. Cunningham and Brunson are at 28.5 points in the latest NBA prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook for their duel in Detroit. With Cunningham notching 35-plus over his last three home games and Brunson scoring over 30 in five of six matchups with the Pistons this season, is backing the Overs as simple as it seems with these NBA prop picks?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.
Zach Edey Over 7.5 points (-122)
Prior to the first two games of Memphis’ series versus OKC, Edey had gone over 7.5 points in 18 of his previous 25 games (72%). But he had just four points in both Games 1 and 2 as the Grizzlies lost by a combined 70 points. Oh is banking on Memphis deploying a different strategy than it used in the first two games, as using the same one would likely result in the same outcome, and that strategy makes Edey a focal point.
“Chet Holmgren has been eating up Memphis with 39 points, 21 reb and just 2 PFs in the first 2 games,” Oh said. “Memphis has to try something to get Chet in foul trouble and, for the sake of this bet, that is hopefully establishing Edey as an offensive threat.” Edey’s points total was at 10.5 at the start of this series but has come down after two subpar outings, so now’s the time to jump on it at 7.5 at FanDuel since most other sportsbooks have it at 8.5.
Christian Braun Over 11.5 points (-112)
The Nuggets’ shooting guard has gone Over 11.5 points in eight of his last 11 games overall, and just missed it in two others as he finished with exactly 11 points. For the season, Braun has hit the Over with his NBA prop for points in 71.8% of road games as the Nuggets vs. Clippers series shifts to Los Angeles. Denver is essentially using a six-man rotation, thus far, in this series, with Braun playing 39.7 minutes per night, and he went over 11.5 points in 23 of 27 regular-season games in which he logged over 35 minutes.
“Overall the over 11.5 is hitting at a phenomenal 69.1% (15.2 average) and an even higher 71.8% on the road, including 8 straight overs from March 24 to April 11,” Oh said of Braun’s points props. “Our projection is for 13.6 points which reflects his recent lower scoring output and the lower scoring nature of playoff games, but we are still +17% over the line.” FanDuel is offering this at -112 odds.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+115)
The model projects Towns to make 1.9 3-pointers, which is in line with his season average of 2.0 makes per game. Most players shoot better on the familiar rims of their home arena than on the road, but that’s not the case with the Knicks’ big man. Towns has better shooting splits across the board on the road, including from beyond the arc, while Detroit actually allows 38% on 3-pointers at home, compared to 35% on the road. While Towns has made just one 3-pointer so far in this series, his season’s work indicates he’s more relaxed, and more efficient, away from Madison Square Garden.
“When you get outplayed for 90%+ of the two games at home and your most talented pure scorer is a big who can’t pass himself the ball, the coaching staff usually adapts to get said big (in this case, KAT) the ball early and often,” said Oh, while noting that Towns has gone over 1.5 made 3-pointers in 64.1% of road games, compared to 51.4% of home games. You can snag this prop at +115 at DraftKings.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
- You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for the most popular props on Thursday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
- You can also view expert betting advice before making Thursday NBA picks or player props. Visit SportsLine now to see expert Bruce Marshall’s picks. He’s 105-70-1 (+2797) over his last 176 NBA picks.
- SportsLine also has multiple experts who specialize in player props and team props, including Mike Barner, who is 143-96 (+3013) over his last 239 NBA player props. Visit SportsLine now to see who Barner is including in his NBA player prop picks for Thursday, which includes a pick on one of New York’s stars.
