Stamp duty set to more than double by 2030

Stamp duty set to more than double by 2030


Homebuyers are set to pay more than double in stamp duty by 2030, with receipts jumping from £8.6bn in 2023 to £18.1bn in six years’ time.

This is according to an analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast by Coventry Building Society, which predicted a 15% rise in house prices by 2030. 

The mutual said the rise in stamp duty would be fuelled by higher house prices and a 41% projected growth in residential property transactions over the same period. 

At the same time, the tax for landlords and people with second homes will add to the bill after the Government introduced a higher surcharge in last month’s Budget. The stamp duty surcharge on additional properties was raised from 3% to 5%. 

Additionally, on 1 April, the nil-rate threshold for stamp duty will fall from £250,000 to £125,000 for homemovers and from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers, meaning more buyers will fall within the tax bracket. The threshold was raised during the mini Budget in 2022 and given a sunset of 2025 by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. 

Jonathan Stinton, head of mortgage relations at Coventry Building Society, said: “The amount homebuyers pay in stamp duty is set to double by 2030 – that means a pretty hefty increase for anyone looking to buy a home over the next few years. Landlords already took the first hit when the 5% surcharge came into effect overnight, and buyers across the board now have to brace themselves for the April cliff edge.

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“These hikes are beneficial to the Treasury, but the balance needs to be just right so people aren’t dissuaded from buying homes. The health of the housing market is dependent on people being able to buy and sell fairly easily, which could be impacted if the tax burden becomes too costly to bear.” 

This article was first published on YourMoney.com‘s sister site, Mortgage Solutions. Read: Stamp duty bill to more than double by 2030, analysis finds

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