Few weekends annually are less certain indices of future grosses than the one before Christmas. That said, a combined $97 million for the openings of two new family-oriented titles set theaters up for a healthy holiday season.
“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount) was the clear winner with $62 million, with “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney) second with $35 million. This is the first time two films have debuted at $35 million or more, and with higher ticket prices today a factor, the best overall since 2011.
The weekend also saw the start of New York/Los Angeles platform runs of two significant awards contenders. New York Film Critics’ Best Film winner “The Brutalist” (A24) despite an over three and a half hour running time averaged nearly $67,000 in four theaters ($267,000 total), while Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language film “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) started with $107,000 in six ($18,000 per theater).
Pre-Christmas weekends more often than not feature the latest sequel in a top franchise (“Avatar,” “Spider-Man,” “Star Wars,” last year’s “Aquaman”) which in most cases have massive openings, the best in their runs. But other films often sustain or improve their openings, and in some cases (“Anyone but You” last year, “The Greatest Showman” in 2017) use the dates as extended previews to spark word of mouth for the lucrative period starting December 25.
“Sonic” and “Mufasa” don’t fit cleanly within either framework, which makes predicting their future a bit trickier. They do look to end up the two best total run performers opening this month, but less than what last month’s “Wicked” (Universal) and “Moana 2” (Disney) will end up with (each between $450 million and $500 million U.S./Canada).
It’s a family-audience oriented holiday among top films to an extreme (“Wicked” the only one among the four to have wide older audience interest), with the four Christmas Day wide openers — “Nosferatu” (Focus), “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight), “Babygirl” (A24), and “The Fire Within” (Amazon MGM) — all high-end specialized-world rooted titles. The releases feature neither any pure action/male-audience appeal or the kind of romance or comedy title like “Anyone but You” last year that can jumpstart a strong run this time of year.
The third “Sonic” fell just short of the $72 million debut for the second entry in April 2022. But that’s where the pre-Christmas factor plays into analysis. The period between December 25 through January 5 (that’s two more weekends) should be bountiful for the $120 million animated sequel, making this likely to be the biggest of the franchise. Its A Cinemascore also elevates its prospects.
“Mufasa,” with a reported cost of $200 million, did much better overseas ($87 million; “Sonic” opens Wednesday internationally), with again good prospects for sustained results. But Barry Jenkins’ photorealistic animated musical mostly prequel to “The Lion King” (A- Cinemascore, less than the 1994 and 2019 versions) even with the pre-Christmas excuse remains a work in progress in terms of ultimate performance. Disney may have pushed its luck a bit in how much more of this franchise was desired.
Despite other films finding interest among last month’s releases, only “Wicked” and “Moana 2” will remain elevated through Christmas. Jon Chu’s musical is #3 this weekend, its first ahead of “Moana” by a small margin (both a bit over $13 million).
“Gladiator II” (Paramount), which seemed a likely play-through, is #6 this weekend. With Paramount also having “Sonic” in play, and a somewhat surprising PVOD release this week (after its fifth weekend), it looks to lose many dates. Last week’s openers “Kraven the Hunter” (Sony) and “Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros. Discovery) look to mostly disappear after 12 days in release. “Red One” (Amazon MGM) is already streaming on Prime and “The Best Christmas Pageant Ever” (Lionsgate), both still in the top 10, are on PVOD already.
“Homestead” (Angel) also opened, with $6 million in fifth place. The post-apocalyptic faith-based film got only a B Cinemascore (most similar titles are automatic A or A+), so it might not get as big a holiday boost as hoped.
“The Brutalist” is the best platform opener since “Anora” (Neon) in October (which grossed $550,000 in six theaters). With its massive length, seating more limited in this competitive period, as well as pre-Christmas alternative activities, its initial performance qualifies as strong. Multiple sellouts, particularly in its 70mm theaters (Village East New York, Vista Los Angeles), boosted the initial dates. It expands to other cities post-New Years.
Pre-Christmas play for an older audience appeal film like “The Room Next Door” means that it likely sustains or even improves its initial weekend total. The $18,000 initial average is behind that of “Pain and Glory” (2019), but better than most of the director’s other recent releases. How much of a factor its English-language filming (his first) and actresses (Tilda Swinton, Julianne Moore) will be seen as it expands.
“Los Frikis” (Wayward/Range), from the directors of the sleeper indie hit “The Peanut Butter Falcon” opened in two New York and Los Angeles theaters to $36,000. The grosses include per sources top-heavy Friday results (in many cases, these come from advance shows), so its ultimate appeal will be determined by results in seven new Christmas Day theaters. The film relates the story of a group of rebelious Cubans in then 1990s who infect themselves with AIDS in order to separate themselves from society.
“The Count of Monte Cristo” (Goldwyn), a massive French hit ($70 million there), failed to find domestic interest with a flat $17,500 in four theaters.
Business improved over 50 percent from last year, with year to date entering the lucrative final 10 days a bit over four percent lower than 2023. That will improve.
Top 10
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 59; Est. budget: $120 million
$62,000,000 in 3,761 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $16,485; Cumulative: $62,000,000
2. Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) NEW – Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 56; Est. budget: $200 million
$35,000,000 in 4,100 theaters; PTA: $8,537; Cumulative: $35,000,000
3. Wicked (Universal) Week 5; Last weekend #2
$13,500,000 (-40%) in 3,296 (-393) theaters; PTA: $4,096; Cumulative: $383,910,000
4. Moana 2 (Disney) Week 4; Last weekend #1
$13,100,000 (-51%) in 3,600 (-400) theaters; PTA: $3,639; Cumulative: $369,068,000
5. Homestead (Angel) NEW – Cinemascore: B
$6,000,000 in 1,886 theaters; PTA: $3,217; Cumulative: $6,000,000
6. Gladiator II (Paramount) Week 5; Last weekend #4
$4,450,000 (-42%) in 2,397 (-827) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $153,900,000
7. Kraven the Hunter (Sony) Week 2; Last weekend #3
$3,100,000 (-%) in 3,211 (no change) theaters; PTA: $1,856; Cumulative: $17,435,000
8. Red One (Amazon MGM) Week 6; Last weekend #6; also streaming
$1,435,000 (-66%) in 2,002 (-1,001) theaters; PTA: $717; Cumulative: $95,352,000
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (WBD) Week 2; Last weekend #5
$1,270,000 (-72%) in 2,602 (no change) theaters; PTA: $488; Cumulative: $7,370,000
10. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (Lionsgate) Week 6; Last weekend #10; also on PVOD
$825,000 (-36%) in 1,519 (-114) theaters; PTA: $958; Cumulative: $38,455,000
Other specialized/independent titles
Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded when available.
OPENING (platform)
The Brutalist (Neon) NEW – Metacritic: 91; Festivals include: Venice, Toronto, New York 2024
$266,791 in 4 theaters; PTA: $66,698
The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – Metacritic: 70; Festivals include: Venice, Toronto, New York 2024
$107,445 in 6 theaters; PTA: $17,908
Los Frikis (Wayward/Range) NEW – Metacritic:; Festivals include: Miami, Hamptons 2024
$36,402 in 2 theaters; PTA: $18,201
The Count of Monte Cristo (Goldwyn) NEW – Metacritic: 75; Festivals include: Cannes 2024
$17,500 in 4 theaters; PTA: $4,375
Los Frikis (Wayward/Range) NEW – Metacritic:; Festivals include: Miami, Hamptons 2024
$36,402 in 2 theaters; PTA: $18,201
HOLDOVERS
Nickel Boys (MGM Amazon) Week 2
$62,162 in 5 (+3) theaters; PTA: $12,432; Cumulative: $145,000
September 5 (Paramount) Week 2
$37,000 in 7 (no change) theaters; PTA: $; Cumulative: $153,930
Queer (A24) Week 4
$364,240 in 379 (-81) theaters; Cumulative: $2,837,000
The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Neon) Week 4
$16,250 in 10 (+1) theaters; Cumulative: $170,626
Flow (Janus/Sideshow) Week 5
$234,700 in 199 (-178) theaters; Cumulative: $1,783,000
All We Imagine as Light (Janus/Sideshow) Week 6
$66,800 in 37 (+3) theaters; Cumulative: $524,054
A Real Pain (Searchlight) Week 8
$217,000 in 160 (-20) theaters; Cumulative: $7,332,000
Conclave (Focus) Week 9; also on PVOD and streaming
$100,000 in 111 (-61) theaters; Cumulative: $31,019,000
Anora (Neon) Week 10; also on PVOD
$160,000 in 118 (-96) theaters; Cumulative: $13,830,000
