“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney) held the #1 position for both Christmas Day and December 26. Its two-day gross of $26.7 million edged out #2 “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount) by over $4 million. However, because “Sonic” last weekend was $28 million ahead of “Mufasa,” who comes out ahead for the full Christmas season remains unclear, though ultimately “Mufasa” could have the edge for total domestic gross.
At this point, 2024 will have an adequate Christmas compared to recent years. Grosses for December 25 and 26 are about $5 million ahead of 2023. But the $116 million two-day total was dramatically lower than the years before COVID struck. From 2016-2019, the two days grossed between $138 million and $177 million. At 2024 prices, that would be as much as $235 million, meaning attendance is down as much as half from those years.
Reporting Christmas Day grosses is always exciting, but for the industry, the results for December 26, particularly when it is a weekday, are a far better indication of how films are doing. As is the case this year, the top 10 orders for December 25 and 26 and the two-day totals vary slightly, as shown in the charts below. Most significantly, “Sonic” takes the two-day #2 position after “Nosferatu” was second in its opening day.
That is unsurprising, since an opening Christmas film will be disproportionally higher for that day than holdovers. And “Sonic,” like “Moana 2” (Disney), was up Thursday as more younger audience appeal films tend to have more day-after appeal.
In looking at the charts, keep two things in mind: the December 26 order is most indicative of the three for how the rest of the holiday will go, and based on past years when that day fell on a Thursday, on average, the upcoming weekend grosses for each will be roughly three times that day’s total.
This year saw four titles that might not normally be considered wide December 25 openers, with some risk for all of them in doing so. The big initial winner is “Nosferatu.” The more optimistic guess for its first five days was in the $25 million-$30 million range. It already has done $19 million, so $40 million is quite possible.
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight) was projected at $15-$20 million through Sunday. It is nearing $12 million for two, so it should hit $25 million or better.
Both results are excellent. Curiously, despite a much lower Cinemascore (B- to A for “Complete,”) “Nosferatu” fell less day two than the Dylan biopic (34 percent compared to 42 percent). “Nosferatu” benefitted from being the most appealing action-oriented film (because of its horror roots) for a big audience underserved this holiday. That genre tends to fall off more quickly, and the stylistic choices of this film won’t necessarily guarantee all viewers will like it.
That said, Focus scored a bullseye with going now and wide, as they did with their similarly risky decision to take “Conclave” wide initially. There was less risk but still some for Searchlight, with a base of both Bob Dylan and Timothée Chalamet fans, strong reviews, and a chance to standout for adult moviegoers. With its likely strong Oscar presence ahead, this likely will see a bigger multiple ahead than “Nosferatu,” even if the latter ultimately is a bit bigger. Whatever happens, these are great results for both films.
Both “Babygirl” (A24) and “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) got lost in the shuffle so far. Nicole Kidman’s film grossed $2.9 million its first two days, while “Fire” did $2.3 million, most of that on Christmas. The latter got an A Cinemascore, while “Babygirl” got a B-. Yet among all four openers, with 13 percent off, “Babygirl” had the smallest drop of the four. Both their fates will be better seen after this weekend, with “Babygirl” having a shot at Oscar attention ahead.
Paramount opened “A Better Man” to $17,000 in five top theaters in two days, a disastrous result. The Robbie Williams musical biopic, which has gotten decent reviews, is expected to do most of its business in the U.K.
“Wicked” (Universal), at $12.4 million, has passed the $400 million domestic mark and should end up #3 among 2024 releases. The only caveat it that it comes out on PVOD next Tuesday, during a period when it still is doing strong business. However, recent trends have shown that added marketing often helps theaters, at least initially. “Moana 2,” now at $376 million, is #4 for the year and still doing well ($10 million for the two-day period).
TWO DAY (estimates)
1. Mufasa (Disney) – $26.7 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) – $22.0 million
3. Nosferatu (Focus) – $19.1 million
4. Wicked (Universal) – $12.4 million
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – $11.5 million
6. Moana (Disney) – $10.1 million
7. Babygirl (A24) – $2.9 million
8. Gladiator II (Paramount) – $2.8 million
9. The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) – $2.3 million
10. Homestead (Angel) – $2.2 million
WEDNESDAY
1. Mufasa (Disney) – $14.7 million
2. Nosferatu (Focus) – $11.5 million (opening day)
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Disney) – $10.4 million
4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – $7.2 million (opening day)
5. Wicked (Universal) – $5.4 million
6. Moana 2 (Disney) – $4.2 million
7. The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) – $1.7 million (opening day)
8. Baby Girl (A24) – $1.5 million (opening day)
9. Gladiator II (Paramount) – $1.5 million
10. Homestead (Angel) – $1.2 million
THURSDAY
1. Mustafa (Disney) – $12.0 million (-19% from Wednesday)
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) – $11.6 million (+11%)
3. Nosferatu (Focus) – $7.6 million (-34%)
4. Wicked (Universal) – $7.0 million (+28%)
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) – $4.2 million (-42%)
6. Moana (Disney) – $5.8 million (+36%)
7. Babygirl (A24) – $1.3 million (-13%)
8. Gladiator II (Paramount) – $1.3 million (-13%)
9. Homestead (Angel) – $1.0 million (-18%)
10. The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) – $.6 million (-65%)
