Judging 5 early-season men’s college basketball overreactions

The 2024-25 season isn’t even two weeks old. But in men’s college basketball, we’re often quick to analyze teams, players and coaches based on limited results. It’s already happening.

North Florida looks like a scary Cinderella candidate after wins over South Carolina and Georgia Tech last week. Get your brackets ready. Cooper Flagg? He’s incredible. But a group of detractors have already used one rocky stretch against him. In a loss to Baylor, John Calipari’s Arkansas squad, shooting 25% from beyond the arc, looked like the Kentucky teams that grappled with late-game executions in Calipari’s final seasons there.

And No. 1 Kansas might not be No. 1? Why couldn’t Alabama score for nine-plus minutes against McNeese? Does Houston have Final Four talent after losing All-American Jamal Shead?

We’re just here to add fuel to those flames. We’re going to help you decide if some of the early declarations about the top teams, coaches and players of this season are fair or overblown. We’re ready to join you in a season full of overreactions.

Kentucky is a national championship contender again

With new head coach Mark Pope, the No. 19 Wildcats averaged 101.5 points in their first two games — wins over Wright State and Bucknell. But victories over a pair of sub-150 teams on KenPom offered a limited opportunity to evaluate this team’s ceiling. And then, the Wildcats met No. 6 Duke at the Champions Classic in Atlanta on Tuesday. They left State Farm Arena with a thrilling 77-72 victory after they corralled Cooper Flagg in the final possessions of the game.

Kentucky had to recover from a double-digit deficit but Pope’s group never wilted under the pressure against a top-10 opponent. A 40% clip from beyond the arc — Kentucky started 9-for-20 from the 3-point line — and the collective effort from Otega Oweh (15 points) and Andrew Carr (17 points) helped secure one of the best wins of the season thus far.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It’s early. Very early. Let’s start there. But, at this point, the pool of potential title contenders — in a men’s college basketball climate that might not feature the same dominant UConn team we’ve seen over the past two seasons — is vast. On Tuesday night, Kentucky proved it belongs in that mix. That grind-it-out effort over a Duke team with three projected NBA draft lottery picks was impressive because of the way the Wildcats won. It was a battle down the stretch, and they made late plays to get the victory.

But there are concerns. Kentucky does not yet have a player who can consistently get his own shot in clutch situations. The Wildcats will need that to make a Final Four run, it seems. Until then, they’re shooting at an excellent clip from the 3-point line, and they’re showing strong defensive capabilities. It appears Pope has the pieces to contend with the Wildcats, who might put the lukewarm ending of Calipari’s reign behind them.

Flagg, young stars will doom Duke’s national title aspirations

The one-and-done era has not produced many one-and-done national championship stars. And yet three potential top-10 NBA draft picks — Flagg, Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach — anchor what could be Jon Scheyer’s most successful season as Duke’s head coach.

Against Kentucky on Tuesday, the freshman trio combined to score 50 points. And the Blue Devils had a healthy lead — until cramping issues began to affect Maluach’s performance. Overall, the young players were fabulous, as they have been to start this season. But Flagg’s late turnovers and tunnel vision in the final seconds offered a reminder that it’s never easy to make a Final Four run — or win a big game — with a roster led by teenagers.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

First, everything that Flagg did Tuesday — before those late missteps — justified all of the preseason buzz. He was a great defender. He played point guard on multiple possessions. He was a force in the paint and he was the most impactful player on the court. It’s unfair to look at his final possessions and question anything about his game, when the reason Duke even had a chance to seal a win late was because of that effort. Knueppel and Maluach had elite contributions on the big stage, too.

Not all one-and-done prospects are created equal. But Duke’s group could be special, and this trio proved as much throughout most of Tuesday night. The three will continue to grow. Though only Kentucky (2012) and Duke (2015) have won national titles with freshman leaders in the post-2006 NBA draft years (the one-and-done era), Duke certainly seems to have young leadership that could help the program join that short list.

Kyle Neptune’s tenure is in serious jeopardy at Villanova

In 2022, Jay Wright abruptly retired after winning national titles in 2016 and 2018. Wright left just as NIL rules and the expansive impact of the transfer portal had begun to change the landscape of the sport. Neptune, who’d been a Villanova assistant under Wright and the head coach for a year at Fordham, was hired as his successor.

For the most part, every legendary coach’s successor has struggled. UCLA had four coaches in 10 years after John Wooden retired. Matt Doherty understood the North Carolina culture as a former player, but he couldn’t sustain the track record established by Dean Smith. And Kevin Ollie won a national title at UConn after Jim Calhoun retired, but his tenure ended after back-to-back sub-.500 seasons. Neptune is 2-2 in his third season, after losses to Columbia and Saint Joseph’s, a pair of sub-100 teams on KenPom. It feels as if he needs his first NCAA tournament appearance to save his job.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Wright, who won 520 games with the Wildcats, established a strong standard any successor would have struggled to extend. It’s why so many coaching candidates choose against following a legend. Neptune accepted the job as college basketball was being reshaped in real time. That has been an obstacle for most coaches, including the veterans. But Neptune did not have a lot of experience as a head coach — which did not help his cause.

After the Wildcats’ loss to Columbia — their second consecutive loss to an Ivy League opponent — Neptune said, “It is what it is.” A comment that did not sit well with some supporters, who are searching for a sign of hope for their team’s season.

The 39-year-old head coach is now 37-34 in his tenure, without a postseason appearance. And the record is not the only concern. Legacies don’t matter as much in this NIL and portal era; a heralded program can lose every key player from one season to the next and become an afterthought. The reality of the sport will only enhance the pressures on Neptune, who clearly needs a turnaround to feel good about his job security.

Kansas’ rotation is overcrowded

After Kevin McCullar Jr. sustained a foot injury in the second half of last season, he barely could practice with the team. A frustrated coach Bill Self acknowledged that 2023-24 team just lacked the depth to compete without the all-Big 12 selection. He vowed to avoid the same situation in the future.

So he brought in Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State), AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Rylan Griffen (Alabama) and David Coit (Northern Illinois) to enhance a Kansas rotation that helped secure a top-10 win over North Carolina in Lawrence last week and defeat Michigan State in the Champions Classic.

The latter game also featured some sloppy moments, though, as players continue to learn their roles for the No. 1-ranked Jayhawks. Self finally has the depth he has craved but does he have room for all of the new talent?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This team already has an All-American center in Hunter Dickinson and a pair of veterans (Dajuan Harris Jr., KJ Adams Jr.). On Tuesday, Self admitted his team would need more time to build chemistry to respond in key moments.

But there is room for every player, too, even if that doesn’t mean always playing a significant role as the season progresses. Storr, Coit and five-star prospect Flory Bidunga give Kansas a rotation that won’t experience a major drop-off when Self turns to his bench, and there are multiple scorers who can help the Jayhawks weather the storm in tough times.

Mayo did everything for South Dakota State last season. Things are different for him in Lawrence. Griffen, Self said, has to get more comfortable in the offense, and Storr must also adapt by playing an efficient game instead of rushing some shots the way he has through three games. This is not a rotation issue, though. The Jayhawks just need more time together to solidify a lineup that could be country’s best.

It’s too early to judge John Calipari’s start at Arkansas

During his introductory news conference in the spring, Calipari said he had no team, as every player on the roster had entered the transfer portal. He built a team from scratch with five-star prospects and key transfers, such as former top prospect D.J. Wagner and former Florida Atlantic star Johnell Davis.

What was supposed to be a solid roster has also dealt with a multitude of injuries, though. Tennessee transfer Jonas Aidoo has played limited minutes while recovering from an offseason injury while forward Trevon Brazile played only nine minutes in the team’s win over Troy earlier this week. Calipari has said they’ve had to practice with only five players at times. The injury bug has already been a significant storyline for the Razorbacks in Calipari’s first season. Should we be worried?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Arkansas has connected on only 30.8% of its 3-point attempts, and ended the week ranked in the 60s on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency. Last season, Calipari had the top 3-point shooting team in the country — and still lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Razorbacks, who are a top-10 defensive team, have not been in sync thus far. That’s OK. They can improve, especially once they’re healthy.

But college basketball is also a long, five-month affair, and Arkansas has only nine standout players when fully healthy. Those injuries are an ominous sign for an already shorthanded crew. Calipari has talent in Fayetteville — he just might not have enough to get this group to the finish line. Which is why the early critiques of this team seem reasonable. Arkansas might not have the depth to reach its ceiling over the next 30-plus games.