Bitcoin has rejected the 99,500K resistance area establishing a LOWER HIGH (see arrow). This is a BEARISH sign that increases the chances of a 90K support break. At the same time, price is back inside of a broader support zone (90 to 95K) which may see a brief reversal develop as well. In order to utilize this information which may appear to be conflicting, you must know what time frame you are looking to capitalize on. The key is to be able to adjust when the market confirms one way of the other. Forecasting absolute scenarios is ineffective.

The 90K support area is a key level. A bullish reversal is likely to appear somewhere in this zone which may be good for a brief retest of the mid to higher 90Ks, but I would not expect much more than that. It maybe worth a swing trade (upon confirmation) for 1 or 2K points. If 90K breaks instead, then this scenario is NO longer in play.

The rejection of the 99,500 resistance signifies weakness that should be NO SURPRISE since price is coming off of a broader Wave 5. This move also establishes a BEARISH pin bar on the monthly chart. A break below the low of this candle will also constitute a broader time frame sell signal. This event CAN be the beginning of the next corrective structure that can see price retest the mid 80Ks or even as low as the 70K area (pre election peak) over the next quarter. Hard to believe after all the Michael Saylor thumbnails on Youtube recently. Lesson: Don’t buy highs, especially when every Youtube thumbnail has his face on it along with an outrageous price objective. I think the only people fooled by this nowadays are little kids.

The Wave 5 that has completed establishes a larger Wave 3 (the bottom of which is 15K). This means the coming corrective cycle Can persist for the next two years and may be very similar to a recent yearly Wave 4 in Gold which took two years to break out of. Wave 4s are typically consolidations and can be very confusing especially when they test their lows. This will be very important for long term investors to to aware of since it there are likely to be opportune dollar cost average prices (just make sure you understand how to weight and avoid leverage).

Being familiar with wave counts is very helpful when it comes to recognizing important turning points and what to generally expect in the near future. It serves as an effective context to consider when utilizing other more specific pattern oriented strategies. The market provides the evidence, and then we adjust to improve probabilities, every else is a function of the risk we choose to take.

Have a safe and Happy New Year and thank you again for considering my analysis.