Over the past decade, a major power shift has been taking place as China has advanced in displacing Russia as the dominant power in Central Asia, according to Geoff Raby in his new book, Great Game On: The contest for Central Asia and Global Supremacy. And this power shift has only accelerated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Russia has been depleted militarily and lost prestige and influence.
Raby is a well-known former Australian ambassador to China. His previous book, China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New Global Order, focused on another power shift, involving China’s rise, the emergence of a multipolar world order and the passing of America’s post-Cold War ‘unipolar moment’.
According to Raby, it used to be said that China and Russia had a division of labour among the five stans of Central Asia, namely Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Russia provided military assistance and security, while China’s role was economic. But the rise in China’s power has brought it much closer to these countries.
It is significant that China’s Belt and Road Initiative was launched in Astana, Kazakhstan in 2013. The initiative has played an important role in elevating China’s power and influence in Central Asia. China has become the region’s biggest source of infrastructure construction and is the biggest creditor of the region. In 2023 Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the inaugural China-Central Asia Summit in Xi’an, a historic Chinese city. The heads of state of the five stans attended, but Russia was not invited.
Raby sees in China’s emergence as the preeminent power in Central Asia an uncanny historical analogy with the US. By the end of the 19th century, the US had consolidated its territory and secured its borders, and by the early years of the 20th century had established hegemony over the Western hemisphere. It was then free to project power globally, which it did. China’s historic security concern has been its western, inland frontiers. By becoming the dominant power in Central Asia, it is similarly freer to project power globally.
Raby has severe doubts about the ‘friendship without limits’ announced by Xi and President Vladimir Putin on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022. Cooperation between China and Russia may have expanded greatly in response to Western sanctions. They are also drawn together by their shared sour attitude towards the US-led world order, which they see as an existential threat to their authoritarian rule. And the two leaders appear to have a genuine affection for each other, having met 43 times since 2012.
But there is no evidence that Putin warned Xi of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, the Chinese government found it had to evacuate 6000 Chinese students in Ukraine. And the timing of the invasion made China look complicit in the violation of one of the most fundamental principles of international law and the cornerstone of China’s foreign policy, namely the sanctity of international borders.
Raby argues that China and Russia’s newly minted friendship without limits has feet of clay. The expression ‘friendship without limits’ disappeared from Chinese official media or propaganda almost as soon as it was uttered. Raby believes that the relationship will likely be judged by history as a ‘concert of convenience’, though for the moment it is one of the most consequential of our times.
Fundamentally, the relationship between China and Russia is riddled with mistrust and grievances, according to Raby. For example, during a period of weakness in the 19th century, China was forced to cede vast territories to Russia in unequal treaties, something that is not forgotten. Moscow supported Delhi in its 1962 war with Beijing. Today, Russia’s elite feels uncomfortable at their country being China’s junior partner and would certainly be displeased with China’s moves in Central Asia. And Putin is now strengthening relations with India, North Korea and Vietnam to remind China that Russia has other options.
Raby is dismissive of concerns among the commentariat that an axis of authoritarians or an alliance of autocrats is challenging the West (‘Chussia Anxiety’). Rather, he sees the world bifurcating into two ‘bounded orders’, one led by the US-led West and the other by China. He proposes a ‘reverse Kissinger’ whereby the West would join forces with Russia to balance China, despite Russia’s horrific behaviour in Ukraine—though this may have to await the passing of Xi and Putin and will require Europe playing a strong role in ‘Europeanising’ Russia.
Raby’s new book is of particular interest as he challenges much conventional wisdom and offers realistic perspectives on very complex issues—even if there are questions about some of his speculative analysis and prognostications.
