A drought-fuelled energy crisis in Zambia and Zimbabwe led to growth in demand for new coal-fired power in 2024, reaching its highest annual total in eight years.
Both countries were gripped by energy shortages for much of the past year as the Kariba Dam hydroelectric plant, which supplies them with the majority of their electricity, faced record-low water levels due to a severe drought.
Newly proposed coal production would create an extra 2.8 gigawatts (GW) of power, according to data produced by research organisation Global Energy Monitor (GEM). A power plant with a capacity of 1 GW can provide the energy needs for around one million US homes.
The 40 per cent of Zambians with grid electricity suffered their “worst blackouts in memory” as the country’s six hydroelectric turbines generated less than 10 per cent of normal electricity output in the latter part of last year.
In Zimbabwe, meanwhile, blackouts became so severe that finance minister Mthuli Ncube was plunged into darkness in the middle of his budget speech in November, in which he also warned that the agricultural sector would contract by 15 per cent due to the country’s low rainfall.
Though seasonal rainfall has now returned, last year’s drought was caused by a particularly severe El Niño weather pattern, which was exacerbated by climate change, experts have suggested.
In response to the crisis, Zambia has proposed building a $900m, 0.6 GW coal-fired power plant, with support from the Wonderful Group, a Chinese-owned company that manufactures ceramics and fertiliser.
In Zimbabwe, some 1.8 GW of new coal capacity was announced at the Hwange power station, the country’s largest power plant, which was backed by the China-based Shandong Dingneng New Energy, and the India-based Jindal Steel.
A number of other new plants were also proposed in Zimbabwe with the backing of Chinese money, according to GEM, taking the total to 2.2 GW of power.
“The situation unfolding in Zimbabwe is a tragic example of the vicious cycle created by fossil fuel dependency,” Farai Maguwu, executive director at the Zimbabwe-based Centre for Natural Resource Governance (CNRG), told The Independent.
“The country’s decision to expand coal at a time when the climate crisis – exacerbated by fossil fuel use – is already wreaking havoc through extreme droughts is both counterproductive and deeply concerning,” he said.
Zimbabwe should be “prioritising a just transition towards renewable energy” rather than “locking in” more coal, Maguwu added.
There is also a new proposal for a coal mine in the country’s Hwange National Park, a biodiversity and tourist hotspot, which is backed by another Chinese company Sunny Yi Feng, and which CNRG has been lobbying against.
“A full cost accounting of any coal development must be cognisant of the rights of future generations,” the CNRG wrote in a recent letter to the Mining Affairs Board, seen by The Independent.
“It appears the considerations above in relation to damaging aspects of the Sunny Yi Feng are not yet being considered.”
Lucy Hummer, senior analyst on GEM’s coal plant tracker team, added that coal-fired power itself requires “significant water supplies” to function, and therefore is not a smart solution for drought-stricken countries.
“Instead, investments are needed in resilient, renewable energy sources rather than the refurbishment of ageing coal infrastructure,” she told the Independent.
“Rich countries that emit the most must step up with climate finance to support a just transition for Southern African countries that seek to alleviate acute energy crises with short-term solutions.”
“While coal projects are often promoted as drivers of economic growth and energy security, their environmental and social costs are significant,” added Marina Agortimevor, coordinator at the Africa Just Transition Network.
“Their impacts not only exacerbate the ongoing climate crisis but also contribute to the severe droughts currently affecting Southern African countries.”
Beyond newly proposed power plants, last year was also a bumper year for coal plant construction starts in Zambia and Zimbabwe, with some 1.5 GW of new capacity breaking ground, according to GEM.
The majority of that total was due to the 1.2 GW Prestige power station breaking ground in Zimbabwe, which is being built by China’s Xintai Resources at a cost of £1.2bn in order to power a new metal processing special economic zone.
China’s support for these facilities comes despite a high-profile pledge at the 2021 UN General Assembly from President Xi Jinping to stop financing overseas coal.
Many of the new China-backed proposals exploit an apparent loophole in the pledge, which allows for “captive power plants” – or power stations built to power specific industrial facilities. However, not all of the new proposals appear to fall into that category, according to GEM.
China has for many years been the biggest global financier of coal under its Belt and Road Initiative, which supports large infrastructure with international aid as well as foreign direct investment.
Despite coal’s resurgence in Zambia and Zimbabwe, prospects for the fuel remain broadly negative across the rest of Africa, with 16 countries reducing or eliminating their pipeline of proposed coal over the past decade, with only three countries marginally breaking that trend.
Globally, the 44 GW of new coal that came online last year was the lowest level in 20 years, reported GEM.
However, while retirements of coal plants in the EU increased fourfold in 2023, and the UK phased out coal for good, China recorded its highest year for construction starts since 2015, with 94 GW of capacity breaking ground.
Coal plant retirements in the US also fell to 4.7 GW in 2024.
While nearly half of the remaining US coal power capacity is due to retire by 2035, power utilities including PacifiCorp, Duke Energy, and Georgia Power have more recently said that they are planning to withdraw or delay retirements, according to GEM.
“Last year was a harbinger of things to come for coal as the clean energy transition moves full speed ahead,” said Christine Shearer, senior analyst on GEM’s coal plant tracker team.
“But work is still needed to ensure coal power is phased out in line with the Paris climate agreement, particularly in the world’s wealthiest nations.”
This story is part of The Independent’s Rethinking Global Aid project
