“Crimea is Ukraine,” the European Commission has said amid reports that the United States has presented a new proposal to Kyiv and Moscow that would see “de jure” recognition of the peninsula that Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
The one-page document, according to Axios and the Telegraph, also includes America’s “de facto” recognition of most of the territories that Russia has occupied in its full-scale invasion: Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and nearly all of Luhansk.
On Wednesday, Brussels made it clear it would not follow Washington’s lead, highlighting the widening gap between the two capitals when it comes to the war.
“We welcome all efforts that respect the UN Charter to bring peace to Ukraine. It is for Ukraine to set the conditions for a just and lasting peace,” a Commission spokesperson said when asked about the possible recognition.
“We stand with Ukraine in the support of its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” the spokesperson added. “When it comes to Crimea, our position is really clear: Crimea is Ukraine.”
The US proposal was presented last week during a meeting in Paris with ministers from Ukraine, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. The Commission did not take part.
The pitch was expected to be re-discussed in a meeting of the same countries in London, pared down after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cancelled his appearance.
Ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his country would not accept a deal that would entail recognising Russian control over Ukrainian land.
“There is nothing to talk about. This violates our constitution. This is our territory, the territory of the people of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy insisted.
Besides the recognition of occupied territories, a key demand from Moscow, the paper also features another high priority for the Kremlin: the lifting of sanctions that were introduced after the annexation of Crimea and drastically ramped up in 2022.
For the past two months, officials close to Donald Trump have publicly floated the idea of offering sanctions relief to Russia as an incentive to strike a peace settlement with Ukraine. Last month, President Vladimir Putin asked for the banking restrictions to be partially lifted as a condition for restoring safe navigation in the Black Sea.
Western allies quickly rebuffed Putin’s overture, with French President Emmanuel Macron saying there could be no sanctions relief “before peace has been established.”
On Wednesday, the Commission, which designs economic sanctions and monitors their implementation, reaffirmed the opposition to any suspension and said a new package, the 17th since February 2022, was already in the works.
“The end of Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified aggression of Ukraine and the unconditional withdrawal of all military forces from the entire territory of Ukraine would be the one main precondition to amend or to lift the sanctions against Russia,” the spokesperson said.
However, approving and renewing sanctions requires the unanimous support of all 27 member states. Hungary has threatened twice to derail the roll-over of restrictions, first in January and then in March.
Although the country eventually relented and allowed the renewal, the against-the-clock saga exposed the increasingly precarious unity inside the bloc and fuelled calls for setting up Plan B to bypass unanimity in case a veto ever happens.
Officials and diplomats in Brussels have acknowledged that contingency measures are already being prepared but are still in very early stages. Creating a new framework with 26 or fewer member states risks opening loopholes and increasing legal uncertainty.
“We will cross that bridge once we get there,” the Commission said. “The reality of facts is that, as of today, we have 16 packages in place with the support of member states.”
Among other things, the existing sanctions cover the freezing of the €210 billion in assets from the Russian Central Bank, which Moscow is keen to recover. The assets have been used as collateral for a €45 billion loan for Kyiv, agreed at the G7 level.
If the money is unfrozen, all allies will be held liable for repayments. Brussels hopes this financial scenario will be enough to deter Hungary from derailing the next renewal in July. The country could still agree to keep some sanctions in place and release others.
America’s proposal, described by Axios as Trump’s “final offer”, comes amid growing signs the White House is losing patience with diplomatic efforts to end the war.
Trump has warned he would “take a pass” if Russia or Ukraine “make it very difficult” to reach a compromise. EU officials have privately expressed dismay at Washington’s approach, which they see as excessively biased towards Russian interests, with most of the pressure directed at the Ukrainian side.
“The Ukrainians and the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the territory they currently own. There’s going to have to be some territorial swaps. So I wouldn’t say the exact lines, but we want the killing to stop,” US Vice President JD Vance said during a trip to India, seemingly confirming elements of the latest proposal.
“The only way to really stop the killing is for the armies to both put down their weapons, to freeze this thing, and to get on with the business of actually building a better Russia and a better Ukraine.”
