It may have taken nearly a decade, but Ben Affleck is finally returning as Christian Wolff in “The Accountant 2.” Despite the long gap between films, the sheer existence of this sequel suggests that there is money to be made here. This time around, it will be Amazon making that money, though, as the sequel shifted hands from Warner Bros. to the tech giant. In any event, the question we’re left with is just how much money is there to be made? In a best-case scenario, quite a bit. But whether or not we’re looking at a best-case scenario is still something of a coin toss.
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As of this writing, “The Accountant 2” is expected to earn somewhere between $17 and $28 million when it opens domestically next weekend, per Box Office Theory. For comparison’s sake, the first movie opened to $24.7 million in 2016 en route to $155.5 million globally against a $44 million budget. So, for the moment, we’re more or less operating in the same ballpark. But we know that tracking can be off in certain cases in recent years. “A Minecraft Movie” recently more than doubled its tracking numbers with a massive $163 million opening, for example.
I’m by no means suggesting this film is going to do “Minecraft” numbers. I am, however, suggesting this could be a “John Wick: Chapter 2” situation. In 2014, the original “John Wick” was a decent hit, bringing in just shy of $88 million worldwide. But in 2017, “Chapter 2” opened to $30.4 million, more than double its predecessor, on its way to a $171.5 million global finish. Some version of that could be in the cards here.
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Lots of folks caught up with “John Wick” at home on streaming/VOD/DVD, leading to a massive boost for the sequel. “The Accountant” has remained a streaming favorite for years now, topping Netflix’s charts in 2024. Audiences have sustained love for this movie. That’s the key here. It wasn’t some “here today, gone tomorrow” hit. It demonstrated real staying power.
Is the gap between movies going to help or hurt The Accountant 2?
Director Gavin O’Connor returns for the sequel, which centers on Christian Wolff (Affleck), who is called upon after an old acquaintance is murdered. Wolff recruits his estranged, deadly brother Brax (Jon Bernthal) to help with the case, making for an unlikely team up alongside U.S. Treasury Deputy Director Marybeth Medina (Cynthia Addai-Robinson). The trio uncovers a deadly conspiracy, and action and mystery ensues.
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One unknown here is the budget. “The Accountant” was a classic mid-budget movie. “The Accountant 2” is probably more expensive. At the same time, Amazon is built to shoulder expenses better than the average film studio. Affleck’s “Air” didn’t profit in theaters for Amazon, but the tech company is ultimately hoping to bolster Prime Video. They don’t need these movies to profit at the box office in the same way a traditional studio would. This to say, even if the budget is closer to $70 million (or perhaps even more), the Amazon element needs to be taken into account.
As far as competition goes, this movie’s biggest direct competition will be Sony’s horror movie “Until Dawn,” based on the video game of the same name, as well as the “Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith” re-release, plus Ryan Coogler’s highly acclaimed “Sinners,” which will be in its second weekend. Even so, the action-seeking crowd is going to be free and clear to gravitate towards Affleck and O’Connor’s latest collaboration.
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It’s also worth noting that critics (myself included) have been quite kind to “The Accountant 2” thus far, which absolutely helps. If audiences agree, those tracking numbers could look modest come next weekend. At worst, this looks like it could be another $150 million global mid-sized hit. At best, the audience for the original is bigger than we realize and that number increases along the way.
“The Accountant 2” hits theaters on April 25, 2025.
