Hurricane Rafael intensified to a Category 2 storm on Wednesday morning and may reach Cat. 3 strength on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale by evening. Rafael’s cone of uncertainty shifted further west than previous forecasts (read: here & here), putting offshore oil/gas rigs at increased risk across the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center in the US said Rafael was just southeast of Havana and packing winds around 100 mph, making it a Cat. 2 storm. The storm is expected to strengthen into a Cat. 3 storm, unleashing “life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding” across west and central Cuba.
“Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days,” NHC’s Dan Brown wrote in a forecast.
The current trajectory of the storm puts about 1.55m b/d of oil production at risk, according to Bloomberg calculations of data from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the NHC.
More from Bloomberg about potential storm impacts on US Gulf area oil/gas assets:
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Rafael also threatens to cross leases that produced 1.59b cf/d of gas, 29k b/d of condensate
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Rafael direction has shifted eastward
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US oil production could be cut by 3.1 million to 4.9 million barrels if hurricane reaches Category 2 status: Mansfield Energy
Oil and gas platforms that are within the cone of the storm include:
Once Rafael arrives in the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico, computer models do not clearly agree on trajectory.
Global + Hurricane Models
GFS Ensembles
GEPS Ensembles
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” NHC noted.
For now, Rafael’s trajectory and intensity should be closely monitored as computer models are still subject to change.
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