Manchester City’s slump has been the story of the first half of the season, while Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal will still be hoping they can become the story of the second by lifting the title. But how about two teams sandwiched between them all?
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are in fourth and fifth spot respectively at Christmas, overachieving resources and expectations. What is most fascinating about that is not just that they have managed to do it but how they have managed to do it.
One of the criticisms of the Premier League in recent seasons has been a kind of orthodoxy of approach, undoubtedly influenced by the success of Pep Guardiola. The game has bent in the direction of his football as teams seek possession of the ball.
It felt like 2024 was the year that the culture wars came to football. Everyone had to have a view on Ange Postecoglou. Meanwhile, Vincent Kompany, a Guardiola protégé, was appointed head coach of Bayern Munich despite being relegated with Burnley.
Russell Martin seemed to view Southampton suffering the same fate as a price worth paying. “We have to believe in something.” He talked not just of principles of play but values, ascribing almost a moral element to it. Style not as a means but an end in itself.
Against this backdrop, the rise of Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth feels as timely as it is revealing. Because these are two of that increasingly small group of clubs whose coaches appear prepared to play a different kind of football to the rest.
In the era of possession, only Sean Dyche’s Everton see as little of the football as Forest. Bournemouth are not far ahead of them in the possession statistics. They both rank among the bottom three for the number of pass sequences of 10 of more.
While Manchester City and Southampton are out on their own as the teams with the slowest – some would say most patient – build-up, Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest and Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are the two most direct teams in the Premier League.
Speaking to Sky Sports about this in October, Iraola said: “The first thing we try to do when we recover the ball is play to the No 9, because that is usually the moment when the opponent is less well-positioned and you can find better spaces.”
No waiting for the opposition to get back into shape for Iraola. His teams cut through quickly, a vertical game as some like to call it. It can be devastating for the opposition and thrilling for their own supporters. Just ask those who travelled to Manchester United.
Another intriguing aspect of this is that while some of Forest and Bournemouth’s numbers are similar, other aspects of their play are wildly different. They both progress the ball up the pitch quickly, but they have different approaches to getting hold of it.
Iraola’s side press high. “This season we are recovering a lot of balls high up the pitch.” They have had a shot on goal as a result of a high turnover from that pressing on 35 occasions already this season, more times than any other team in the Premier League.
Nuno’s side do not press high. In fact, Forest allow the opposition to progress the ball up the pitch more than any other team in the Premier League, another of these two being outliers. Opponents travel an average of 15.5 metres before being stopped.
Forest allow more passes per defensive action that any other side, they are content for these possession teams to have the ball in areas where they cannot hurt them. Nuno’s plan is to eventually funnel the ball into an area they can win it, and then strike quickly.
He is a natural pragmatist. Speaking in 2024, Nuno told Sky Sports: “It does not have to do with more or less possession of the ball. I could have a very good idea but do I think it is going to work out? Do I have the personnel to execute what I think?”
Asked what improvements he had sought to implement in the team, he had sought to make Forest more compact, he explained. “Our organisation, when we go to recover the ball, the distances between our players, we need to reduce those gaps even more.”
Iraola sees it completely differently. He wants to open games up not shut them down. “Most games we win are the games that are more open, where there are more chances, where we can exploit one-against-ones on the outside and find bigger spaces.
He added: “The better the opposition, the more risk that you have to take if you want to press them. You know, sometimes people say, ‘They are very good, so we have to wait a little bit longer to press.’ But that way you have zero chance to recover that ball.”
There is a rare intensity to Iraola’s Bournemouth and they love to turn contests into a running game, making the pitch big. Only Ipswich have covered more ground than the Cherries have so far this season. Only Tottenham average more sprints per game.
“We like to prioritise this kind of volume in our running because we feel that in games which are quite close, where one small chance can make the difference, we are not so good.” Forest? In contrast, Nuno’s team are the kings of the close football match.
No team has won as many games as they have by just one goal. No team has lost fewer. Keeping it tight is the mantra and that is reflected in their own running stats. They are in the bottom three for sprints. Only Leicester run less than them in matches this season.
Two teams with contrasting approaches but two teams with similarly impressive results. And the fact that they are doing it differently to anyone else in the Premier League is a cause for celebration, kicking against the homogeneity of modern football.
The lesson of David and Goliath is one entrenched enough in our culture to be included in the Old Testament. You cannot hope to beat stronger opposition by doing the same thing as them. The success of Nuno and Iraola is a new testament to that old truism.
