Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight and sees more misery for Tottenham at Nottingham Forest.
Manchester City vs Everton, Boxing Day, 12.30pm
To beat this Manchester City you need to be brave with the ball in transition and show ruthlessness with your finishing.
Everton are not that team.
Sean Dyche’s men are a tough nut to crack but are woefully toothless in attack, failing to score in six of their last seven Premier League matches.
In that period they have the lowest expected goals return of any team and have created the fewest bigger chances. One goal should be enough for City to win this game – and boy do they need it.
The win to nil at 11/8 with Sky Bet is a nice alternative to the outright 1/3 on a home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace, Boxing Day, 3pm
No team have made more tackles in the Premier League than Crystal Palace (709) since February 1 and this encounter could be a tackle frenzy.
Ismaila Sarr is not only contributing from an attacking standpoint, he’s getting stuck in off the ball too with his tackle count soaring in recent weeks.
He has made at least one tackle in six of his last seven appearances, totalling 10 tackles in all. The fact he plays more centrally than he’s done in the past is seeing him encounter tight spaces and turnover opportunities hence why more tackles are being racked up.
The 11/4 with Sky Bet for Sarr to register two or more tackles is a price to consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Chelsea vs Fulham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Despite these two teams both heading here on the back of 0-0 draws, goals should be on the menu.
Chelsea’s games this season have averaged 3.67 goals per game and Fulham have scored in every away game this season, including netting twice at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Boxing Day factor should help the goals flow too. In the last 18 Premier League games played on December 26, there have been an average of four goals per game.
Perhaps the festive mood inside the stadium in terms of atmosphere helps the game flow to a higher tempo which in turn spikes the goal output. Who knows?
Anyway, the 4/5 with Sky Bet on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals should give punters a great run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 goals & both teams to score (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Game of the day material this one, involving two top teams on the back of impressive results. They’ll both be hoping to motor towards the top four spots over the next few months as one looks up for grabs with Manchester City’s demise, Tottenham’s troubles and Manchester United’s mediocrity.
If Villa play with their same swagger in midfield as they did against Manchester City then the 11/4 with Sky Bet on an away win could turn out to be a cracking bet.
The axis of Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara with Youri Tielemans playing advanced worked a charm with Tielemans especially flourishing in that role. His output this season has been excellent – he’s got six assists already and Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer have created more chances than him this season (39).
It’s 4/1 with Sky Bet he grabs another assist.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The rise of Nuno Espirito Santo’s side can be seen through the markets here where Forest are well-backed favourites at 13/10 to beat Tottenham, who are great fun but not a team to take seriously playing in this current style. One area Forest have the edge in this encounter is at centre-back where Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo are an elite partnership.
The manager has built a team around their strengths and Murillo, especially, is making his mark – I’m not sure there is a better all-round central defender in the Premier League on current form.
His threat in the attacking third is also relevant from a betting perspective as his price of 5/2 with Sky Bet for two or more shots looks attractive. He’s had at least one shot in 11 of his last 12 games, hitting the two-or-more line four times. With Spurs’ vulnerabilities from set-pieces, he’s likely to threaten that shots line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Southampton vs West Ham, Boxing Day, 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
The Saints battled their way to a hard-earned and deserved goalless draw at Fulham, restricting Marco Silva’s side side to an expected goals figure of 1.04. It was a performance that had Ivan Juric’s stamp all over it despite him not being officially in charge. His work at Torino, where they finished ninth last season before leaving for Roma, was built on solid foundations in defence. Only Inter Milan, Juventus and Bologna conceded fewer goals than Torino last season.
It’s obviously worth treading carefully with any Saints bets in the early stages of the new manager and even though the overall numbers in the Premier League scream profit for over 2.5 goals backers, the under 2.5 line here at 6/5 with Sky Bet is too big to pass up.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Wolves vs Manchester United, Boxing Day, 5:30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Analysing the metrics behind both Wolves and Manchester United’s last results is why using such data is an important and intriguing part of making decisions regarding outcomes of football matches.
Wolves scored three goals from an expected goals figure of 1.11 from just eight shots while United drew a blank in their 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth despite creating 2.28 expected goals from 28 shots.
This tells us despite winning 3-0 we can’t go too overboard about Wolves turning a corner and perhaps United are moving in the right direction despite just taking seven points from six Premier League games under Ruben Amorim.
The market certainly thinks so as they have the away side priced up at odds-on here at 19/20 with Sky Bet. That’s too short to back for me but it wouldn’t surprise me if United do start to find some consistency in the coming weeks. Keep them on your side would be my advice.
SCORE PREDITION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Leicester, Boxing Day, 8pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Cricket score, incoming?
This could be a repeat of what Newcastle did to Leicester a couple of weeks ago where they battered them 4-0 in one of the most one-sided games of the season. Leicester were just camped inside their own half with no confidence or ability to sustain any pressure to get themselves up the pitch. It was wave after wave and ended with Newcastle posting 27 shots, 11 on target and scoring four goals.
Trying to find bets in the Liverpool handicap or their total over-goals line is the correct punting strategy but the prices are so tight with the market expecting them to win this by three goals. That makes this game devilishly hard to find any squeak of value. A major thrashing could be on the cards though so Liverpool to defy a -5 goal handicap could be live although ideally I’d want bigger than 7/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 6-0
Brighton vs Brentford, Friday, 7.30pm
It’s the football betting guru derby. Owners Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham both made their fortunes beating the betting markets using ahead-of-their-time models and have now built two of the best-run football empires in the world, especially in Brighton’s case and I want to be with them here.
Brentford have lost 19 of their last 24 matches away at Premier League teams and are a very one-dimensional and stale team on the road.
The market does like them in certain spots which always does make me think they’re too short – and I think Brighton have got a great chance of winning this game, especially as Brentford are missing their best player in Ethan Pinnock. In the 19 games without Pinnock in the Premier League since the start of the 22/23 season their win percentage drops from 40 per cent to 15 per cent.
I’m very greedy though when it comes to backing outright short prices, and I’m always looking to boost where possible and I think adding both teams to score to the Brighton win is worth it in this case when it takes the price to 7/4 with Sky Bet. Both teams have scored in 14 of Brighton’s last 15 games in all competitions. And if you had backed the opposition to beat Brentford and both teams to score in their last eight away games you’d have landed a winner at odds-against prices seven times.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Brighton to win & both teams to score (7/4 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Ipswich, Friday, 8.15pm
“It is crystal clear that we are going to have to show a different side of us in these next few games,” said Ipswich boss Kieran McKenna after his team were ripped apart by Newcastle.
Reading between the lines, this means that Ipswich are going to slip into a deep defensive block, frustrate and try to stay in the game. It’s a defensive structure that Arsenal have struggled against this season, most notably in their 0-0 with Everton.
It’s doubtful whether Ipswich can repeat that level of organisation but with this one-way game likely to be on the cards there are betting angles to exploit with Arsenal’s corner lines. I think they could rack up a healthy number here and the 11/10 with Sky Bet for nine or more Arsenal corners should go close if Ipswich can stay in the game early on.
