The NBA has a bit of a reputation for chalky playoffs. Recent history suggests otherwise. It was only two years ago, for instance, the second round featured one team holding every seed between No. 1 and No. 8. Last year’s conference finals featured only one top-two seed. This is the NBA’s parity era. That means condensed standings in the regular season and upsets in the playoffs.
It’s our job now to figure out where those upsets are going to come. Now that (most) first-round matchups are set, the CBS Sports NBA staff went matchup-by-matchup to make our picks to advance to the final eight. Some of these matchups are pretty straightforward. You’ll be shocked to hear that we expect the defending champion Boston Celtics to advance against the Orlando Magic. Others, especially in the packed middle of the standings, are far more complicated.
Below are our staff picks for the first round. Some of us will look brilliant. Others, foolish. If recent NBA history is any indication, expect a bit more of the latter than the former. While there are a few juggernauts at the top of the bracket, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will emerge as their greatest threats as the playoffs progress.
Series odds: Celtics -8000, Magic +2200 (via FanDuel)
Botkin: Cavs in 4. Don’t even think about doing some crazy, Miami. Be happy with your historic 10th seed to 8th seed climb. Jimmy Butler ain’t walking through that door. He has real business to attend to in the Bay. Cavs roll.
Herbert: Cavaliers in 4. Shoutout to Miami for becoming the first team to finish 10th in its conference and make the playoffs. Unfortunately, it now has to deal with Cleveland, an opponent that has much more firepower (and the fifth-best halfcourt defense in the league, per Cleaning The Glass).
Maloney: Cavs in 5. The Heat making the playoffs out of the No. 10 spot was impressive, and they’ve only been swept once since Erik Spoelstra took over in 2008. They’ll figure out a way to get one game, but not any more than that against a Cavs team that cruised to the No. 1 seed.
Quinn: Cavaliers in 5. Erik Spoelstra has coached in 33 playoff series. He’s only been swept once. He gets enough respect to win a game here, but this is a mismatch. The Jimmy Butler-less Heat aren’t the playoff spoiler they’ve been in the past. They should be little more than a warm-up for the No. 1 seed.
Ward-Henninger: Cavaliers in 5. You always hesitate to pick against Miami, but this isn’t the postseason-nightmare Heat we’re used to seeing now that Jimmy Butler is in Golden State. That being said, they’ll still be a tough out, but Cleveland just has weapons upon weapons upon weapons on both ends of the floor to wear down an inferior opponent.
Wimbish: Cavaliers in 4. The Heat put together two impressive performances in the play-in to get here. But the Cavaliers are a different animal entirely. Cleveland has depth, is going to make life difficult for Tyler Herro and can look to several guys to get them points. Miami’s lack of depth is going to stand out in this series.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Series odds: Celtics -8000, Magic +2200
Botkin: Celtics in 5. Sweeps are hard in the NBA, and the Magic may make a couple of these games close with their defense and a random decent offensive showing. But this is a mismatch. Celtics cruise.
Herbert: Celtics in 4. The Celtics dropped one game in the first round against the Heat last year. They dropped two the year before against the Hawks. It’s time, I think, for them to start the playoffs by just stomping on somebody. (Also, the Magic are going to have an incredibly tough time scoring against Boston.)
Maloney: Celtics in 4. The Magic have the worst offensive rating (108.9) of any playoff team, and simply do not have the firepower to post a serious threat to the defending champions.
Quinn: Celtics in 5. The Magic defend the 3-point line well enough to steal a game, but without Jalen Suggs, they pose no threat whatsoever to the defending champs.
Ward-Henninger: Celtics in 4. Even if the Celtics have one anomalously poor shooting night, the Magic simply can’t score enough to keep up with them. With multiple physical defenders to throw at Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero throughout the series, Orlando’s poor offense might be even more destitute. I’d like to think the Magic could steal a game, but that’s probably not very realistic.
Wimbish: Celtics in 4. Orlando just doesn’t have enough shooting. The Magic win with their defense, we saw that as they suffocated a shorthanded Hawks team in the play-in. But against a team that averages 48.2 3-point attempts a game, it’s going to be difficult to keep up with that.
Series odds: Knicks -420, Pistons +330
Botkin: Knicks in 7. Detroit is going to make life hell for the Knicks. This is more than a nice story; this team defends like crazy and Cade Cunningham is impossible to keep out of the paint. But the Knicks have more reliable secondary offensive options, and I think that wins it for them in a very tight series.
Herbert: Knicks in 6. Cade Cunningham has given New York (and everybody else) problems this season. He’s going to target Karl-Anthony Towns in pick-and-rolls, and, in that situation, I don’t love any of the coverages the Knicks can choose from. On the other hand, the Pistons are (mostly) inexperienced, and I don’t trust them to defend an elite offense like this without fouling. They have less high-end talent, too.
Maloney: Knicks in 6. This could be a trendy upset pick for some, but as well as the Pistons have played in the second half of the season, the fact of the matter is they don’t have as many good players as the Knicks, or as much experience.
Quinn: Knicks in 7. This is a sneakily dangerous series for the Knicks. Ausar Thompson is going to make life miserable for Jalen Brunson. In the end, though, there are just too many Pistons the Knicks can help off defensively, so Detroit will struggle to score enough to win.
Ward-Henninger: Knicks in 6. The Pistons are a great story, but I just trust the Knicks’ experience — particularly that of Jalen Brunson — over a team led by a talented point guard in his first postseason. One of Cade Cunningham’s few flaws is that he’s a little loose with the ball, and the Knicks have the defensive strength, length and speed to make his life hell for the entire series.
Wimbish: Knicks in 6. Make no mistake, the Knicks shouldn’t take Detroit lightly. This isn’t the team from a season ago that set an NBA losing-streak record. But I’m leaning on the experience and craftiness of Jalen Brunson, and Karl-Anthony Towns to overpower a young Pistons team that is likely a year or two away from serious contention.
Series odds: Pacers -176, Bucks +148
Botkin: Pacers in 6. Great news that Damian Lillard has been cleared to return. But he’s still out for Game 1 and nobody knows when, exactly, he’ll return, or whether he’ll be able to just hit the ground running at full speed, so to speak. Giannis is enough to make this a competitive series if the Bucks are making a fair amount of their 3s, but in the end, it’s been the Pacers who’ve been one of the best teams in the league for the last three-plus months. With or without Lillard, the Bucks lose this series. They’ll just make it a little closer with him.
Herbert: Pacers in 6. With or without Damian Lillard, Milwaukee doesn’t have the personnel to slow Indiana down. I’m more confident in Indiana’s role players than Milwaukee’s, and I’m not sure what to expect of Lillard after more than a month off. This pick makes me a bit nervous because I can envision Giannis Antetokounmpo repeatedly getting the Indiana bigs in foul trouble, but I can also envision the Pacers’ speed wearing down Milwaukee over the course of the series.
Maloney: Pacers in 7. Damian Lillard’s impending return makes this series far more interesting, but he’s going to miss at least Game 1 and it’s still unclear when he’ll be back on the court. And as well as Giannis Antetokounmpo has been playing lately, it’s just too hard to trust the Bucks’ supporting cast in a playoff setting.
Quinn: Pacers in 6. Milwaukee is just at too much of a talent disadvantage to compensate here with Damian Lillard out for at least Game 1. But even if the Bucks get him back mid-series, he just gives Indiana’s offense a target to attack on other end. The Pacers have been great for three solid months now and should advance to the second round.
Ward-Henninger: Pacers in 7. It’s hard to predict this series not knowing how much — if anything — the Bucks will get from Damian Lillard, but even without him the Pacers, like most teams, simply have no answer for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Ultimately Indiana just has more weapons than Milwaukee if Dame is even moderately compromised, and I trust them in a Game 7 at home with Tyrese Haliburton at the helm.
Wimbish: Pacers in 7. Without Damian Lillard — at least to start the series — this is going to be a tall task for Milwaukee. The Pacers are entering this series with the eighth-best defense since the All-Star break, and Tyrese Haliburton is looking like the All-Star version of himself from last season. That being said, I don’t see a world where Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t try and push this to a seven-game series.
Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t be distracted by testy Bucks-Pacers history, explains why even losing is ‘win-win’
Colin Ward-Henninger
No. 1 Thunder vs. No. 8 Grizzlies
Series odds: Thunder -4000, Grizzlies: +1500
Botkin: Thunder in 5: The Grizzlies are a very good and dangerous team, even if we’ve spun that fact inside our “they’re in disarray!” news cycle, and they are going to play this series with the pedal to the floor. But we’re also not giving nearly enough credit to the gap between OKC and the rest of the West. Someone is going to have to pull off a major upset to beat the Thunder. It won’t be Memphis.
Herbert: Thunder in 4. Oklahoma City had little trouble with this matchup in the regular season, and Memphis is far from full strength now. The Grizzlies may challenge the Thunder’s transition defense and interior defense (both of which have been elite), but I expect OKC to pass those tests.
Maloney: Thunder in 4. The Grizzlies were already short-handed and now Ja Morant is going to be less than 100% due a sprained ankle. It’s hard to see how they pose any threat to a Thunder team that just completed one of the best regular seasons ever.
Quinn: Thunder in 4. Friday’s play-in win had more to do with the Mavericks than the Grizzlies. Memphis is still depleted with Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke hurt. The Thunder are healthy and just had one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history. This one’s a no-brainer.
Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 5. The Grizzlies have shown some grit to bounce back from what looked like a disastrous conclusion to the regular season, but they’re running into an absolute buzzsaw in OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to carve up Memphis’ porous defense, while the Thunder’s endless cadre of bulky wings will be a horror for Ja Morant. Give them one in Memphis, but that’s about it.
Wimbish: Thunder in 4. Memphis beat a dysfunctional Mavericks team that probably shouldn’t have even been in the play-in at all. It was a great performance from Ja Morant who is dealing with an ankle injury, but not having Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke is going to really hurt the Grizzlies against a Thunder team that is fresh off a historical regular season.
Series odds: Rockets +138, Warriors -166
Botkin: Warriors in 7. Forget about the Rockets being “young” — this is a nasty team in all the right ways. They are way more athletic than the Warriors and defensively armed to make Stephen Curry’s life miserable at least for long stretches, if not entire games. Point will not come easily for the Warriors, but ultimately, they have two guys in Curry and Jimmy Butler who can create offense out of nothing for the handful of possessions that I believe will swing this series. Disclaimer: Houston has guys who can create, too. People are talking about them like they can’t score. They’re almost a top-10 offense. Jalen Green can be the best scorer on the floor in any game. Same for Alperen Sengun against Golden State’s small lineups. This has dogfight written all over it.
Herbert: Warriors in 6. The case for the Rockets is simple: They are bigger and more athletic than the Warriors, and Stephen Curry has never faced a playoff opponent this equipped to defend him. I’m going with the Warriors, though, for equally straightforward reasons: Their defense has been even better than the Rockets’ since the Jimmy Butler trade, and their offense has been far superior.
Maloney: Warriors in 6. The Rockets’ length, athleticism and tenacious defense is going to make this a very frustrating series at times for Steph Curry and Co., but where are the baskets going to come from, especially in the clutch?
Quinn: Warriors in 7. This series reminds me quite a bit of Golden State’s seven-game victory over Sacramento two years ago. It’s going to be a brutal, physical series, and Houston’s athleticism will pose real problems, but I’m not picking a team this young against Stephen Curry.
Ward-Henninger: Warriors in 6. This is one of those predictions that could potentially look really bad. The Rockets are young, hungry and athletic, and we could be sitting here in two weeks talking about how slow and old they made the Warriors look. Instead, I’m going to go with what I’ve seen from Golden State over the past two months and posit that Houston simply won’t be able to score enough to keep up with them. Either way, it’s going to be an absolute slugfest.
Wimbish: Warriors in 7. You can say I’m underestimating the Rockets, and that may be so. But the years and years of championship experience that the Warriors have on their roster in Stephen Curry and Draymond Green matter. Not to mention Jimmy Butler, who showed that “Playoff Jimmy” still exists after dropping 38 points in Golden State’s play-in win against the Grizzlies.
With Playoff Jimmy Butler next to Stephen Curry, Warriors show exactly why they’re a threat to beat anyone
Brad Botkin
Series odds: Lakers -186, Timberwolves +156
Botkin: Lakers in 6. Another close series. Anthony Edwards + defense is a winning formula against most teams, but the Lakers have two superstars, meaning one is going to get the double and one is going to be catching against a scrambling defense. When Edwards is inevitably doubled, do you trust Julius Randle and Minnesota’s shooters to punish the Lakers? If the answer to that question is yes, Minnesota can win this series. For me, it’s a no.
Herbert: Lakers in 7. Luka Doncic will get to go at Rudy Gobert again, but Anthony Edwards will get to go at Doncic (and neither Dereck Lively II nor Daniel Gafford will be waiting for him in the paint this time). This is a fascinating contrast in styles, especially if JJ Redick decides to bench Jaxson Hayes and spread the Wolves out. I don’t know, man. I guess I’ll pick the team that will have one of the best playmakers in NBA history on the court at all times.
Maloney: Lakers in 7. The Timberwolves have been awesome down the stretch, and they could win this series. This pick comes down to one thing: the Lakers will be able to keep at least one of LeBron James or Luka Dončić on the court at all times.
Quinn: Lakers in 6. Minnesota will own the glass in this series, but that’s not going to be enough. The Lakers have so much ball-handling that they will be able to hunt for the weak links here. The Lakers have weak links too, but given the non-shooters in Minnesota’s rotation, they’ll just double Anthony Edwards and make someone else beat them. The Lakers are better equipped to win that sort of series.
Ward-Henninger: Lakers in 7. I think the Wolves will make this a tougher series that some give them credit for, but at the end of the day I trust the postseason resumés of Luka Dončić and LeBron James when it comes to a Game 7. Anthony Edwards can go toe-to-toe with anyone and will be looking for his moment, but the Wolves lack that true second option to take some of the burden off of him.
Wimbish: Lakers in 6. This one is simple: Luka Dončić loves playing Minnesota. Specifically, Dončić loves playing Rudy Gobert. He alone won’t beat the Wolves, but him, coupled with LeBron James and Austin Reaves are going to be a tough trio for Minnesota to contain over the course of a series.
Series odds: Nuggets +100, Clippers -118
Botkin: Clippers in 6. This is going to be an incredible series. Nikola Jokić is the best player on earth and Jamal Murray has, for the most part, reprised his Robin role. Denver can and will extend the minutes of its starters to limit the damage the Clips can do against the bench. If that sustains, this will be a very close series. But listen, the Clippers are SUPER legit. If there’s anyone to challenge Jokić as the best player in these playoffs, it might be Kawhi Leonard. He is fully back. James Harden is coming off an incredible performance against Golden State in what was essentially a playoff game and remains an All-NBA problem. The Clippers have an elite defense, an elite big man and an elite third scorer in Norman Powell. That’s all around an elite 1-2 superstar punch. The more I write about them, the more I’m already preparing to pick them in round two to upset the Thunder.
Herbert: Clippers in 7. Despite all the drama in Denver, the Nuggets have been virtually impossible to guard when Nikola Jokić has been on the court this season. If Jamal Murray can even approximate what he did in the 2020 and 2023 playoffs, they can win this series. I’m taking the Clippers, though, because they’re the more balanced team and their best lineups have been annihilating everybody for a while. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are going to attack Denver’s weak links relentlessly, and, based on the regular season, I’m skeptical of the Nuggets’ ability to problem-solve defensively.
Maloney: Clippers in 6. Are we all falling for it again with the Clippers? Perhaps, but they’ve won 70% of their games with Kawhi Leonard in the lineup. The Nuggets, meanwhile, do not play defense and fired their coach a few days ago.
Quinn: Clippers in 7. The Clippers have been the second-best team in the West for the past month or two. The Nuggets have been in some disarray all year and are about to enter the playoffs with a head coach that has three games of experience. Never underestimate the power of the reigning MVP, but the gap at every other spot is just too significant.
Ward-Henninger: Clippers in 6. The Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the past couple of months, and are facing a team that fired its championship-winning coach about a week ago. But that team also has Nikola Jokić, who can win — and has won — playoff series all by himself. Ivica Zubac is as capable as any defender against him, and the Clippers’ bevy of perimeter stoppers should be able to limit Jamal Murray. If Kawhi Leonard stays healthy and James Harden is anywhere near what he was in the regular season, it’s hard to see the Clippers losing.
Wimbish: Clippers in 7. This may be the most interesting series of the bunch in the first round. Kawhi Leonard is looking like his vintage self, James Harden has been quietly putting together an All-NBA caliber season, and, since Jan. 1, the Clippers have the fourth-best net rating in the league. I’m not discounting Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets, but at the same time, if Jamal Murray isn’t operating at full strength, then this series is over.
