After going 31 races without a win, Denny Hamlin has won two races in a row. He’ll set his sights on extending his winning streak to three on Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway in the 2025 Food City 500. Hamlin is among the favorites this week, according to the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds, after winning two of the last three races at the most iconic short track on the NASCAR schedule. Kyle Larson is the +270 favorite, followed by Hamlin (+460), William Byron (+950) and Chase Elliott (+950) on the 2025 Food City 500 odds board from FanDuel Sportsbook.
The green flag drops at 3 p.m. ET and the race is scheduled for 500 laps around the steeply-banked, 0.533-mile oval. Before entering any 2025 Food City 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Bristol predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.
It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the Food City 500 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard.
Top 2025 Food City 500 predictions
For the 2025 Food City 500, we can tell you the model is high on Kyle Busch, even though he’s a +2800 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Bristol odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Busch is a two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and a 63-time winner overall, but he’s coming off his first winless season as a full-time driver and failed to make the NASCAR playoffs for the first time since 2005.
However, Busch has been running well so far in 2025, with four top-10 finishes in eight races and a fifth-place run where he led 42 laps in Austin and was a clear contender to earn the win. The 39-year-old is an eight-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway, and he could join Rusty Wallace, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Cale Yarborough and Darrell Waltrip as the only nine-time winners in track history with a victory on Sunday. The best odds you can find right now on Busch to win are +2800 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney, one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2025 Food City 500 starting lineup. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion and last year’s runner-up doesn’t have a win all season and has finished outside the top 10 in five of his eight starts so far. He also hasn’t fared particularly well in his Cup career at Bristol Motor Speedway.
In 16 starts there, Blaney only has six top-10 finishes and has never finished better than fourth. He won the pole at the 2024 Food City 500 but wound up limping his way to a 16th-place finish, and he blew an engine before going on to finish 36th in the only race where he’s looked like a serious contender to win in 2025 (Homestead). Blaney’s odds are hovering between +650 and +750 at most major books, and the model is definitely staying away from his +750 price. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 NASCAR at Bristol picks
The model is also targeting three other drivers with Bristol NASCAR odds of 18-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the NASCAR Food City 500 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Bristol odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Bristol projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, and find out.
2025 NASCAR Bristol odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Bristol picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson +270
Denny Hamlin +460
William Byron +950
Chase Elliott +950
Ryan Blaney +1000
Christopher Bell +1000
Alex Bowman +1100
Ty Gibbs +1800
Joey Logano +2400
Tyler Reddick +2800
Kyle Busch +2800
Chase Briscoe +3200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +3400
Josh Berry +3700
Brad Keselowski +3700
Chris Buescher +3700
Bubba Wallace +4400
Carson Hocevar +5500
Austin Cindric +8500
Ryan Preece +8500
Ross Chastain +8500
AJ Allmendinger +11000
Ty Dillon +17000
Austin Dillon +17000
Daniel Suarez +17000
Justin Haley +17000
Michael McDowell +17000
Noah Gragson +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +34000
Todd Gilliland +34000
Cole Custer +34000
Zane Smith +34000
Erik Jones +34000
Josh Bilicki +50000
Cody Ware +50000
Shane Van Gisbergen +50000
Riley Herbst +50000
Corey LaJoie +50000
