2025 Golden Globes Awards Winners Predictions in Every Category

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Overall Oscars Commentary (Updated Jan. 1, 2025): The Golden Globes are upon us, and so begins the televised awards ceremonies that will provide an opportunity for frontrunners to emerge and dark horses to stake their claims on a year that’s as open as any in recent memory. Will that create an environment where voters spread the wealth between multiple titles?

Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language film “Emilia Pérez” is leading the charge on the film side with a record-breaking 10 nominations, making it the most-nominated comedy/musical movie in Golden Globes history — surpassing “Cabaret” (1972) and “Barbie” (2023).

Meanwhile, Brady Corbet’s sweeping epic “The Brutalist” has a respectable seven nominations in the drama corner, while close on its heels is Edward Berger’s gripping religious thriller “Conclave,” which boasts six mentions. Both films are set to battle it out in the coveted best picture (drama) race, where it’s anyone’s guess which way the coin will land.

A friendly reminder: A Golden Globes win doesn’t necessarily secure Oscar glory. History has plenty of cautionary tales. Just ask the teams behind “1917” (2019), “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017), “The Revenant” (2015), “The Social Network” (2010), and “Babel” (2006). They all snagged Globes for best picture (drama) only to lose the Oscar to “Parasite,” “The Shape of Water,” “Spotlight,” “The King’s Speech,” and “The Departed,” respectively.

On the TV side, FX’s fan-favorite “The Bear” has cooked up a robust five nominations, making it the most-nominated show this year. But don’t count Netflix out of the game, which leads for all networks and studios. The streaming giant is positioned to dominate across multiple categories in both film and TV. Beyond the possible victories for “Emilia Pérez,” Netflix’s arsenal includes the Emmy-winning limited series “Baby Reindeer,” the hilariously irreverent comedy “Nobody Wants This” and a lineup of acting contenders like Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) and Javier Bardem (“Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story”). If projections hold, Netflix could walk away with a jaw-dropping haul of over half a dozen wins.

The overlap of two Emmy calendars makes Globe wins a bit tricky as a barometer for awards momentum. Still, let’s not downplay the impact of a victory. A Globe trophy can be a turbo boost for any campaign (or career). Who wouldn’t want that shiny gold orb on their mantel?

The countdown is on with voters’ ballots due on Wednesday, Jan. 1, 2025. Below, we’ve laid out our ultimate Golden Globes predictions, complete with some light commentary and thoughts on a few categories.

Variety parent company PMC owns Golden Globes producer Dick Clark Prods. in a joint venture with Eldridge.

FILM CATEGORIES
Motion Picture (Drama)

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Music biopics have historically performed well in this category (e.g., “Bohemian Rhapsody”), making it unwise to discount “A Complete Unknown,” director James Mangold’s portrayal of folk legend Bob Dylan. Meanwhile, the lighter nomination counts for “Dune: Part Two,” “Nickel Boys” and “September 5” diminish their chances of pulling off an upset. The real contest appears between “The Brutalist” and “Conclave.” Both are strong with members, with Berger’s film benefiting from its familiarity and ease among voters, while Corbet’s historical epic could gain traction through its broad international appeal.

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

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The Globes have outdone themselves this year, presenting a competitive lineup.

While “Challengers” and “A Real Pain” have their share of admirers, they don’t seem to have the momentum needed to clinch top honors. “Wicked,” meanwhile, appears poised to follow in the footsteps of last year’s “Barbie,” garnering recognition primarily in the cinematic box office category (Side note: it might be time to clarify what this category truly represents).

Critics have showered praise on “The Substance,” but any major accolades for Coralie Fargeat’s visceral body-horror film are likely to focus on Demi Moore’s standout performance — or perhaps the screenplay.

That leaves the main showdown between “Anora” and “Emilia Pérez.” Deciding which of the two will come out on top has been a back-and-forth debate. Sean Baker’s dramedy, “Anora,” boasts a Palme d’Or win, having already triumphed over Jacques Audiard’s crime musical at Cannes. However, the landscape has shifted since then. Netflix’s aggressive campaign for France’s international submission, “Emilia,” has paid dividends, culminating in a record-breaking haul of nominations at the Globes.

Ultimately, it feels like “Emilia Pérez” will just edge out its competitor in what promises to be a nail-biting evening.

Actor (Drama)

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It’s fascinating to see how certain Globe acting categories could pave the way for contenders’ Oscar success. Two intriguing names to watch are Daniel Craig and Sebastian Stan, and not really in terms of winning potential. Both have garnered attention for their performances, but neither seems poised to claim an outright victory.

Stan finds himself in a unique position with dual nominations. His dramatic role in “The Apprentice” has admirers, but it’s his lead comedy actor nomination for “A Different Man” that could surprisingly bolster his Oscar chances for his work as Donald Trump in the other film. While these projects are unrelated, a win in the comedy category would send a strong signal to industry insiders and voters, spotlighting Stan’s versatility.

Craig faces a different set of challenges. His role in “Queer” has been met with love (and an NBR win), but his Oscar campaign hinges on the outcome of the comedy actor race. For Craig to solidify his position in the best actor Oscar conversation, it would be ideal for someone other than Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”), Hugh Grant (“Hereditary”), or Stan to win. All three of these actors could gain the momentum and talent to edge Craig out of the Oscar spotlight.

And then there’s Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet — two perennial awards-season darlings — who have never won Globes beflre. While Chalamet’s performance continues to expand its fanbase, its Brody that might pull out a victory.

Actor (Comedy or Musical)

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This is among the toughest categories to call. Aside from Gabriel LaBelle (whose excellent in “Saturday Night”), any of the remaining five could claim victory. I’m going with a no guts, no glory pick for Hugh Grant for “Heretic” to spruce up the race.

Actress (Drama)

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Among the nominees, Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) stands out as the only actress whose film also earned another nomination, landing a spot in the Non-English Language category (aside from Pamela Anderson whose film landed original song). Does the dual recognition make her the frontrunner for this prize? While voters indicate a strong pocket of support for Torres, Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) and Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) are firmly in the conversation.

Actress (Comedy or Musical)

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There are a few ways this category could be cemented on Sunday night.

Coralie Fargeat’s bold and visceral “The Substance” made a major splash with five Globe noms, including actress (Demi Moore. I think if she wins, the Oscar race for best actress is over and she runs to the Dolby.

I believe victory moments for Mikey Madison or Karla Sofía Gascón would start chain reactions on the awards season similar to best actor 2002. While a Cynthia Erivo named envelope would be a crucial first step in making “Wicked” doubters believers in her, and the film’s Oscar prospects.

I’m going with the “safe” choice of Madison in “Anora.”

Supporting Actor (Motion Picture)

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Kieran Culkin leads in the precursor awards for “A Real Pain” and conventional wisdom would have you check his name off in your Oscar pool. I am not a wise man it seems.

Similar to when Willem Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf led the critics awards for “The Florida Project” and “Lady Bird,” the televised ceremonies went with the alternatives of Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney.

I’m starting to believe that Edward Norton from “A Complete Unknown” is about to start his victory lap. And why not? A veteran actor who would be on his fourth Oscar nom, and hasn’t won yet. Why would his fellow actors pass him over?

Or this theory is proven wrong and Guy Pearce’s triumphant music begins.

Supporting Actress (Motion Picture)

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The first big showdown between Ariana Grande’s Elphaba from “Wicked” and Zoe Saldaña’s lawyer from “Emilia Pérez.”

Currently tied in critics wins, we’ll see if the love for the two stars is real among voters, or if they can call an audible for someone like Margaret Qualley (mimicking an Aaron Taylor-Johnson win for “Nocturnal Animals”) or provide a career win for Isabella Rossellini for “Conclave.”

I think Grande just might do it.

Director (Motion Picture)

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Screenplay (Motion Picture)

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Score

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Song

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Animated Feature

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Non-English Language Film

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Cinematic Box Office Achievement

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TELEVISION CATEGORIES

TV Series (Drama)

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TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

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TV Series (Limited or TV Movie)

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TV Actor (Drama)

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TV Actor (Comedy)

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TV Actor (Limited Series or Movie)

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TV Actress (Drama)

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TV Actress (Comedy)

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TV Actress (Limited Series or Movie)

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Supporting Actor (Television)

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Supporting Actress (Television)

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Stand Up Comedy Performance

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FILM CATEGORIES

Motion Picture (Drama)

Motion Picture (Comedy or Musical)

Actor (Drama)

Actor (Comedy or Musical)

Actress (Drama)

Actress (Comedy or Musical)

Supporting Actor (Motion Picture)

Supporting Actress (Motion Picture)

Director (Motion Picture)

Screenplay (Motion Picture)

Score

Song

Animated Feature

Non-English Language Film

Cinematic Box Office Achievement

TELEVISION CATEGORIES

TV Series (Drama)

TV Series (Comedy or Musical)

TV Series (Limited or TV Movie)

TV Actor (Drama)

TV Actor (Comedy)

TV Actor (Limited Series or Movie)

TV Actress (Drama)

TV Actress (Comedy)

TV Actress (Limited Series or Movie)

Supporting Actor (Television)

Supporting Actress (Television)

Stand Up Comedy Performance

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